Weekly Market Report – December 29, 2022

Sips on 10th plans to open sometime in late February or early March in the former Joe Banana’s space at 1022 South 10th Street. Interior renovations started in September and are wrapping up now. Sips on 10th will be a “fun and energetic wine and champagne concept” with heavy appetizers and weekend brunches. The business has the same ownership as Blackstone Social and the Social bar/lounge near 192nd & Pacific Street.

If you’ve been missing B&G’s Tasty Foods, you have an opportunity to enjoy that familiar taste. Over Easy restaurant near 168th & Q Street will hold a “New Year’s pop-up party,” in which B&G’s will take over the restaurant this Saturday night and Sunday.

Nettie’s Mexican Restaurant was destroyed in a fire last week at 7110 Railroad Avenue in Bellevue. The building was declared a total loss, thus ending the beloved restaurant’s 36-year run at the location.

A Kwik Shop convenience store and gas station has opened on the northwest corner of 90th & Blondo Street. The building includes a Sbarro location. It’s the only Sbarro location in Nebraska. The pizzeria used to be in several area malls but had been absent from the market in recent years.

The Sarpy County Chamber is planning a ribbon-cutting January 6th at Wall to Wall Wine & Spirits at Shadow Lake Towne Center to celebrate the store’s one-year anniversary.

The Cheesecake Factory has bounced back after struggling during the pandemic, according to The Hustle. The company reported record revenue of $769 million in July 2021, and topped that with $832.6 million in Q2 of 2022, despite inflation and reduced consumer spending. Surprisingly, the most popular dish isn’t cheesecake. It’s fettuccine alfredo, which is ordered more than 200,000 times each month. Cheesecake Factory’s lone Nebraska location is at Westroads Mall.

The “Restaurant & Retail Updates” section is sponsored by Anderson Convenience Market, featuring Quality AMOCO Fuels and serving Omaha since 1952, and proud to announce the return of Quality Amoco Fuels. Look for changes this Summer at Anderson Convenience Market – 8 Omaha area locations!

Learn more about Anderson Convenience market at www.Anderson1952.com

Growth & Development: 2022 Year in Review

At the end of each year, Grow Omaha likes to take a look back and summarize the development projects of the year.

2022 was a banner year for Omaha growth and development. Tower cranes popped up over Midtown, progress was made on several billion-dollar data centers and a couple of blockbuster announcements captured Omahans’ imaginations.

2022 started with a bang back in January when Mayor Jean Stothert and Mutual of Omaha CEO James Blackledge held a joint press conference announcing a new skyscraper and an urban streetcar system.

Construction is expected to begin next week on Mutual of Omaha’s headquarters building at 14th and Farnam Street on the site of the former W. Dale Clark library. Crews just recently finished demolishing the old library building.

When it’s complete in late 2025, Mutual’s $600 million headquarters building will have 44 floors and approximately 800,000 sq. ft. of office, meeting, collaboration and amenity space. It will include parking for 2,200 vehicles in a garage used by Mutual employees during business hours and the community during evenings and weekends.

At 677 feet, the Mutual of Omaha tower will be 43 feet taller than Omaha’s First National Tower, which is currently the tallest building in a multi-state region including Nebraska, Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Wyoming and the Dakotas.

The streetcar system is expected to fundamentally change development patterns in the downtown and midtown areas. It will run from the CHI Health Center Omaha, south on 10th Street and then west along Farnam Street through the Blackstone District to the University of Nebraska Medical Center. The Omaha City Council recently approved $440 million in bonds to make the system a reality. It is expected to open for business in 2026.

Those blockbuster developments were accompanied by countless other projects. Here are a few:

The Mercantile – This is the project on the north end of ConAgra’s downtown campus. The first building, known as the Brickline, is about to open. An office building is planned just east of the Brickline. Other buildings are on the drawing board.

Highway 50 Tech Corridor – Tech companies including Facebook, Google and Amazon are investing billions of dollars along the corridor with no end in sight. By the way, tech growth is not limited to the Highway 50 corridor. Google began work on another massive data center near 114th & State Street.

The Riverfront – The renovated Gene Leahy Mall opened to great fanfare in early July. It’s part of a $300 million overhaul of the three downtown parks. Lewis & Clark Landing and Heartland of America Park are expected to open this coming summer.

Airport Expansion – A redesigned front entrance and a few parking improvements were finished at Eppley Airport. Additionally, plans were announced for a $600 million terminal expansion set to begin next year.

Retail – Multiple retail businesses opened or announced plans in 2022. A couple stick out in particular…REI Coop opened a store at Nebraska Crossing. Costco announced plans for a third Omaha store to be built on the southeast corner of 180th & West Maple Road. Nebraska’s first Fleet Farm superstore is expected to open just west of the planned Costco.

This section is sponsored by RENZE. For over 128 years, we have been providing our clients with innovative solutions for interior corporate and retail branding, as well as unique exhibits and graphics for tradeshows and events. With leading-edge equipment and quality craftspeople working out of our 90,000 sq. ft. facility, we partner with you to help create your vision. See a wide variety of our work HERE!

Construction has reached the second floor of a future 6-story Hampton Inn on the southwest corner of 44th & Douglas Street. The hotel will serve the growing Med Center area. Nearby, demolition is about complete on both the former Munroe Meyer Institute and a former Omaha Public Schools building. Those demolition projects will make way for the nearly $3 billion Project NEXT complex and a 7-story administration tower.

Omaha Public Power District is starting early preparation work for next year’s planned widening of 156th Street between Pacific and Dodge streets. Actual construction will begin next year. That stretch of 156th Street will be converted from a two-lane rural road into a four-lane divided thoroughfare.

Construction has started on Warhorse Casino, which will be part of Horsemen’s Park at 64th & Q Street. The casino will open in early 2024, according to WOWT. Plans call for 800 slot machines plus table games. Operators estimate the casino will generate $150 million a year in revenue. It will be the metro area’s fifth casino, joining Harrah’s, Ameristar, Horseshoe and Prairie Flower.

Grow Omaha has added a new feature to its website: “Grow Omaha Certified Podcasts.” We have identified high-quality, Omaha-centric podcasts that provide value to our followers. We launched with three podcasts: “Restaurant Hoppen” with Dan Hoppen; “The Omaha Podcast” with Matt Tompkins; and of course, The “Grow Omaha Show!” The site updates these podcasts automatically every time a new episode is dropped. Click HERE.

Grow Omaha Snippets are brought to you by Omaha Car Care with four metro area locations – 131st & Dodge, 58th & Center, 85th & L and 144th & Harrison.

Omaha Car Care “We’ll be along for the ride.”

Real Estate News from CoStar – A closely watched measure showed home prices declined in October for the fourth-straight month, among other lingering signs of a slowdown in the housing market in the face of high mortgage rates and concerns about a potential recession.

A Tuesday report from analysts at S&P Global, CoreLogic and Case-Shiller said prices declined 0.5 percent in October from the prior month. This follows news that the number of existing-home sales fell for 10 consecutive months through November.

Southwest Airlines’ humiliating, system-wide melt-down continues as at least 2,300 flights have been canceled today. Southwest canceled 20 arriving and 20 departing flights yesterday at Eppley Airport, according to the Omaha World-Herald. Southwest was the only airline to cancel flights in Omaha yesterday.

New Street Properties of Omaha has sold a large retail building at 909 South 72nd Street to Caller Properties of Lexington, Ky, according to Investors Realty. Tenants in the building include a Kohl’s discount store, and ALDI supermarket and a Cavender’s western wear store.

AMCON Distributing Company, an Omaha-based consumer products company, has declared a special cash dividend of $5.00 per common share. This cash dividend is payable on January 13, 2023 to shareholders of record as of January 3, 2023.

Werner Enterprises, Inc. will release its fourth quarter and full-year earnings on Tuesday, February 7, 2023, after the market close. The company will also hold a conference call to discuss the fourth quarter and full year 2022 results and 2023 outlook on the same day, beginning at 4:00 p.m. CST.

This section is sponsored by FranNet of The Heartland, the local, trusted franchise experts. They are “in the business of helping you get into business!”

The Cost of Waiting for Mortgage Rates to Go Down

By Joe Finlay

The 2022 housing market has been defined by two key things: inflation and rapidly rising mortgage rates. And in many ways, it’s put the market into a reset position.

As the Federal Reserve made moves this year to try to lower inflation, mortgage rates doubled – something that’s never happened before in a calendar year. This had a cascading impact on buyer activity, the balance between supply and demand, and ultimately, home prices. As all those things changed, some buyers and sellers put their plans on hold and decided to wait until the market felt a bit more predictable.

But what does that mean for next year? What everyone really wants is more stability in the market for 2023. For that to happen, we’ll need to see the Fed bring inflation down even more and keep it there. Here’s what housing experts say we can expect next year.

What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates in 2023?

Moving forward, experts agree it’s still going to be all about inflation. If inflation is high, mortgage rates will be as well. But if inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will likely respond. While there may be early signs inflation is easing as we round out this year, we’re not out of the woods just yet. Inflation is still something to watch in 2023.

Right now, experts are factoring all of this into their mortgage rate forecasts for next year. And if we average those forecasts together, experts say we can expect rates to stabilize a bit more in 2023. Whether that’s between 5.5% and 6.5%, it’s hard for experts to say exactly where they’ll land. But based on the average of their projections, a more predictable rate is likely ahead.

That means, we’ll start the year about where we are right now. But we could see rates tick down if inflation continues to drop. In the meantime, expect some volatility as rates will likely fluctuate in the weeks ahead. If we see inflation come back under control, that would be good news for the housing market.

What Will Happen to Home Prices Next Year?

Home prices will always be defined by supply and demand. The more buyers and fewer homes there are on the market, the more home prices will rise. And that’s exactly what we saw during the pandemic.

But this year, things changed. We’ve seen home prices moderate and housing supply grow as buyer demand pulled back due to higher mortgage rates. The level of moderation has varied by local area – with the biggest changes happening in overheated markets.

Some experts are saying home prices will appreciate next year, and others are saying home prices will come down. But if we take the average of all the forecasts, we’ll likely see relatively flat or neutral appreciation in 2023.

As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors says, “After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.”

What About Omaha?

Traditionally, Omaha has weathered severe decreases and steep increases in housing prices. In 2007 – 2012, we did not experience the crash as much as other cities did. We also didn’t see the 30%+ yearly housing price increase that some of the mountain states experienced recently. As a result, my guess is that Omaha will stay even with the national forecast. With no change in housing prices and more predictable interest rates, buyers can move forward with more confidence, and sellers can still cash in on their equity gains over the past three years.

Bottom Line

The 2023 housing market is going to be defined by mortgage rates, and rates will be determined by what happens with inflation. The best way to keep a pulse on what experts are projecting for next year is to lean on a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect.

Grow Omaha Residential is developed and sponsored by Joe Finlay, REALTOR with NP Dodge Real Estate.

Compiled by Grow Omaha co-founJeff Bealsder and sales trainer 

Leadership & Management

Best-selling business author Anthony Iannarino contemplated this quote in one of his recent articles:

“Everybody has his reasons.” – Jean Renoir. The Rules of the Game (1939)

If you want to be a great leader or manager, this quote provides you with a lot of what you need to know. The transactional sales leader believes everyone is money-motivated. They promise money for performance. But many of your team members are motivated by taking care of their family. Others seek recognition. Still others are being driven by something else altogether.

Iannarino says one of the first questions you might ask in an interview or a coaching session is “What are you passionate about outside of work?” You can also ask, “What motivates you?”

Each person is doing what they are doing for their reasons. By eliciting their reasons, you can improve your ability to motivate and help them pursue what it is that they really want.

In doing so, you improve your results.

Sales

Last week we talked about ways a sales pro can maximize the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day. One of our loyal readers pointed out another option which should have made the list:

Lead generation and research – this is ideal time to develop a target list of high-value prospects for next year. You can take your time, looking up companies and individual LinkedIn profiles. You could do pre-call prospect research during this quiet week, so you’re ready to start calling in January.

Wisdom

“Year’s end is neither an end nor a beginning but a going on, with all the wisdom that experience can instill in us.” – Hal Borland

Grow Omaha University is sponsored by MyStaff Inc, a locally owned staffing firm whose purpose is helping Nebraska companies recruit for corporate office positions.

My Staff Inc – Our team helps you find yours!

Bark in The New Year on December 31st: The Omaha Dog Bar is hosting a New Year’s celebration for you and your furry friends! Food and drinks will be available while you and your pet party it up with the others.

New Year’s Eve Fireworks Spectacular on December 31st: Enjoy a spectacular fireworks show in the warmth and safety of your vehicle! The Holiday Lights Festival is closing out the year with a fireworks display like no other. Head to the CHI Health Center on December 31st with friends and family!

NYE at The Granary on December 31st: Come experience Bushwackers and The Granary this New Year’s Eve! This indoor/outdoor party will combine outdoor heated space with NYE party favors, a line dancing competition, indoor and outdoor DJs, and a complimentary midnight champagne toast ringing in the new year with Nebraska’s only LIVE Midnight Ball Drop and Fireworks on the Granary Green.

Winter Wonderland happening now – Jan 2, 2023: Fontenelle Forest has transformed its Great Hall into a Winter Wonderland for all to enjoy! Experience the dazzling displays of decorated trees and wreaths then head over to their lighted river view boardwalk outside. This event is only happening for a few more days so head over before you miss out!

Creighton Bluejays vs. Seton Hall Pirates on Jan 3, 2022: The Creighton Bluejays will be going against the Seton Hall Pirates on January 3rd at the CHI Health Center. Bring your family and friends to cheer on the team!

This Upcoming Events section is sponsored by Eagle Mortgage Company, is a locally owned and full-service mortgage company in Omaha.

Eagle Mortgage can help you realize your dream of owning a home.

Milan Laser Hair Removal has hired Tasha Chambers as Chief Human Resources Officer. Chambers has 15 years of human resources experience including Chili’s Bar & Grill, where she was in charge of HR for 60,000 employees across the country. Omaha-based Milan has more than 225 locations in 28 states.

Jennifer Lingenfelter has been promoted to vice president of group underwriting for workplace solutions at Mutual of Omaha. She joined Mutual in 2009 as an Associate Underwriter. She has held various roles in Group Underwriting, most recently Director of Workplace Solutions Group Underwriting. Lingenfelter received a bachelor’s degree from the University of Iowa.

American National Bank has promoted Kurt Grote to first vice president, commercial banking team lead. In this expanded role, he will guide a team of bankers to provide service to existing clients while expanding the bank’s portfolio.

The “People in the News” section is sponsored by Baird Holm LLP. Baird Holm’s dedicated team of real estate lawyers has extensive experience in all aspects of real estate law, including purchases, sales, zoning and land use, leasing, and dispute resolution. Click HERE for more information.

Charles Dickens’ magnum opus begins with: “It was the best of times; it was the worst of times.” These lines also describe the stock market in 2022.

Depending upon your index of choice, the market ended the year between minus 10% and minus 35%. This should not come as a shocking revelation. The technical term for this schlimazel is “regression to the mean.” English translation: We begin by overshooting to the upside. Then we overcorrect to the downside.

This has been going on since Moses was a pup and will continue even when most of us have moved to the big board room in the sky.

In spite of the market’s gyrations, mom and pop remain optimistic about the future. In 2022, they added over $100 billion to their mutual fund stash. This is the highest cash infusion since the middle of the dot.com bubble in 2000. This indicates two things about the citizens of Wall Street-West: 1. They are optimistic about 2023; and 2. They are self-directing their portfolios from a long-tern perspective.

Contrast mom and pops’ activity with that of the nefarious gurus of Wall Street.

Hedge funds have increased their cash positions from 1.6% to a little over 10%. This indicates that the crème de la crème of Wall Street takes a dimmer view of the market’s prospects than do the straphangers of Wall Street-West. History is, however, on the side of the straphangers because every year around 20 percent of the hedge funds go belly up. Mom and pops’ numbers for the same data point is zero – that’s excluding a few liquidations mandated by messy divorce situations.

Several more comments to put the market year in perspective. Inflation and the resulting rise in interest rates caught individual bond investors and young Wall Street whippersnappers off-guard. They have never been in a rising interest rate environment and were shocked to find that when interest rates rise, the principal value of the bonds decline.

Another datapoint that slipped past the Wall Street prognosticators, is the significance of the $10-$12 trillion held in retirement accounts. These dollars are very stable and don’t chase after the latest meme stock being pumped up by Twitter. Wall Street is also unaware of the billions of dollars that roll into these accounts annually through the contributions of employers and employees.

As you read these most insightful comments, the year 2022 will be coming to an abrupt end. Looking forward to the year 2023, the Gnomes continue to recommend that individual investors ignore the drivel that spews forth on a daily basis from Wall Street and their media lackies. This year it was especially important to ignore the needle and buy the haystack. And finally – drumroll please – we come to the Gnomes market prediction for 2023. IT WILL FLUCTUATE!

The Grow Omaha radio show broadcasts live every Saturday morning at 9:00, but now you can watch videos of each episode instead of just listening.

Grow Omaha’s brand-new website features video footage shot inside the radio studio during each week’s show!

Videos include News of the Week, Lightning Round, guest interviews, and “Grow Omaha Uncut,” a behind-the-scenes look at what happens during commercial breaks.

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