The Omaha metro area crossed a major milestone in 2024: a population of more than 1 million people. According to Dr. Josie Schafer, director of the Center for Public Affairs Research at the University of Nebraska at Omaha, that moment was both exciting and revealing.
“We’re on a steady, upward trajectory,” Schafer said. From 2020 to 2024, the Omaha metro grew by 3.3 percent — faster than the state as a whole and roughly on par with similar metro areas like Kansas City. While smaller places such as Sioux Falls, S.D., and Des Moines, Iowa, are growing more quickly, Omaha sits solidly in the middle when compared to peer metros.
What pushed Omaha over the one-million mark, however, was not people moving from other states. Instead, Schafer points to international migration as the key driver. Domestic migration — people moving state to state — remains negative for both the metro and Nebraska overall.
“That’s still true,” she said. “People move here every year, but more people leave than come in.”
Despite that, Schafer emphasized that the overall picture is not one of decline. Both the state and the metro continue to grow through natural change and international migration, which she describes as “a really positive thing,” especially as many regions across the country struggle with aging populations and population loss.
The more concerning trend, Schafer explained, is who is leaving. The Center for Public Affairs Research closely tracks “brain drain,” defined as adults age 25 and older with at least a bachelor’s degree. Nebraska has more than 450,000 residents in this category, with a significant share living in the Omaha metro.
Each year, the state gains some of these highly educated workers—but loses more than it gains. Recently, that net loss has been about 3,000 people statewide, an improvement from losses of around 4,500 in prior years. Roughly half of those losses come from the Omaha metro.
The pattern is telling. Many educated workers move from rural Nebraska into Omaha for their first professional job. Then, after a few years, they leave the state entirely.
“It used to be the 20-24-year-olds leaving,” Schafer said. “Now it’s the 30-34-year-old group.”
That shift is significant. These are often people with families, young children, homeownership and tax contributions. They are also often in stable, mid-career roles — professional positions or middle management — ready for the next step.
“And they’re not seeing it here,” Schafer said.
The issue, she believes, is not a lack of jobs. Omaha has many open positions and very low unemployment. Instead, it’s about job density at higher wage and higher skill levels. When those opportunities are limited, career progression can feel stalled.
“Jobs come first; social networks come second,” she said. “People are leaving for career opportunities.”
Pay plays a role as well. In regions with dense job markets, employers must compete for workers, driving wages up. Without that competition, wages stagnate.
Schafer also pushed back on common assumptions about why people leave Nebraska. The top destination for those leaving the state is Iowa, while Iowa also loses more people to Nebraska than any other state.
“So it’s not weather,” she said.
Looking ahead, Schafer predicts slow, steady population growth for Omaha — and with it, slow, steady economic growth.
“People are essential to the economy,” she said. “If we’re not growing the number of people, we can’t grow the economy.”
For Omaha’s future, Schafer believes the focus should be less on attracting new residents and more on retaining the ones already here.
“If we can retain more,” she said, “we would grow from within.”
And that starts, she emphasized, with career opportunity.
“People who are from Nebraska,” Schafer said, “want to be in Nebraska.”
