Weekly Market Report – June 1, 2023

Grow Omaha is proud to deliver this market report to you each week. This would not be possible without the support of our sponsor, Quantum Fiber!

Twin Peaks sports bar plans to return to the Omaha market, according to Trenton B. Magid of NAI NP Dodge, who is representing the Kansas-based franchisee in securing two planned Omaha locations. The restaurant needs 6,000 to 8,000 sq. ft. and will consider existing buildings or pad sites for new buildings. The Dallas-based chain has nearly 100 locations.

Ancho & Agave plans to open the second week of August in the 10,804 sq. ft. former Pier One space at Village Pointe. The Mexican restaurant has existing locations in Bloomington, Ill. and Middleton, Wis.

Whole Foods Market has launched “Dash Cart” in five cities including Omaha, according to KMTV. Dash Cart is “a smart shopping cart that makes grocery shopping quicker by allowing you to scan products right into your cart as you shop and then skip the checkout line.”

Le Quartier Bakery & Café is moving. The Countryside Village store will close June 25th and then reopen this summer in Loveland Shopping Center northeast of 90th & West Center Road. Le Quartier has local store in Dundee.

Williamsburg Pizza is now officially open for business just southwest of 168th & Harrison Street. It’s the New York City pizzeria’s sixth location and first outside the Big Apple. The restaurant is owned by Omaha native Aaron McCann and head chef Nino Coniglio, in partnership with Omaha-based DKPM Investments.

Wine, Beer and Spirits, Nebraska’s largest, locally owned liquor store chain, has partnered with Wahoo Meat Locker to make locally sourced meats available in all four WBS stores in west Omaha, downtown Omaha, Lincoln and Grand Island.

HOTWORX plans to open another location this month next to the Observatory Lounge at 144th & West Center Road. HOTWORX, which already has several Omaha locations, is a fitness business offering hot cycle, hot pilates and hot yoga.

Fast Signs plans to open a store soon at Power Plaza adjacent to Sam’s Club in Council Bluffs’ Manawa Power Center, according to Lerner Company.

The “Restaurant & Retail Updates” section is sponsored by Anderson Convenience Market, featuring Quality AMOCO Fuels and serving Omaha since 1952, and proud to announce the return of Quality Amoco Fuels. Look for changes this Summer at Anderson Convenience Market – 8 Omaha area locations!

Learn more about Anderson Convenience market at www.Anderson1952.com

OPPD Prepares for $2 Billion Expansion

Omaha Public Power District’s 13-county service area is experiencing unprecedented growth in demand for energy, the result of a thriving regional economy, according to an OPPD press release.

With such growth comes the need to power it.

During last week’s OPPD board of directors committee meetings, utility leaders made recommendations to meet the near-future generation needs.

OPPD expects peak energy loads will increase at a rate of approximately 100 megawatts per year for the foreseeable future. That’s the equivalent of adding about 65 metro area high schools or mid-size hospitals – in just one year. To put the growth in context, OPPD was only adding 4 MW per year just a few years ago.

OPPD remains committed to its current generation expansion projects. To date, these include Turtle Creek Station (450 MW), Standing Bear Lake Station (150 MW), and Platteview Solar (81 MW), with more renewables coming. However, the exponential growth in the region will require even more generation. OPPD leaders are recommending the addition of an additional 2.5 gigawatts by 2030.

“We are confident we can meet this challenge and provide the power our growing communities need, while maintaining the reliability our customer-owners expect and deserve,” said OPPD president & CEO Javier Fernandez. “We’re excited about the future and the opportunities that lie ahead.”

OPPD has been analyzing several resource options for this added capacity. Generation solutions must be feasible to engineer, procure, construct and interconnect to the regional electric system in the time frame needed to reliably serve our customers.

Last week’s recommendation proposes adding:

• 1,000 to 1,500 MW of renewables (wind and solar), which includes generation that has yet to be sourced
• Up to 125 MW of battery storage (four-hour equivalent)
• 600 to 950 MW of thermal power (such as natural gas)
• 32 MW or more of demand response (shifting or shedding electricity)
• Approximately 320 MW of added fuel capacity and fuel oil storage at existing generation facilities – essentially upgrading current facilities to allow for additional winter capacity and resiliency

OPPD remains committed to previously announced plans for its North Omaha Station, including retiring its older units (1-3), which were converted from coal to natural gas in 2016, and converting units 4-5 to natural gas. The only change recommended at that site is to potentially add battery storage.

More than 90 percent of new load would be served by renewable sources with the recommended additions, according to OPPD’s current projections.

“It took us 75 years to get where we are today with our energy portfolio. And by 2030, we are going to nearly double our generation portfolio,” said Fernandez. “That’s incredible.”

The Genesis Health Club at Midtown Crossing plans to move across the street into the former Alamo Drafthouse Cinema space at 3201 Farnam Street.

The new space will allow Genesis to expand the gym to 67,000 sq. ft. and add amenities such as a bar and possibly even a rooftop pool. Renovations are just getting started. Completion is planned for late 2024.

The former Pet Spa at 1804 North 168th Street, which more recently had been used as a Covid-19 testing center, has been purchased by D.R. Horton, the nation’s largest home construction company. Texas-based D.R. Horton plans to move its local office into the building.

Miracle Hills Park, the 137,000 sq. ft. retail strip on 23 acres northwest of 114th & Dodge, is undergoing a major renovation. The 35-year-old center is owned by Perkins Properties and is getting a new façade and upgraded parking lot.

Freedom Village will hold a ribbon cutting June 8th at 1821 Hillcrest Drive in Bellevue. The over-55 complex includes multiple apartment units in a 4-story building as well as single-story garden homes.

All Holy Spirit Greek Orthodox Church is relocating to a building currently under construction west of 192nd Street between West Dodge Road and Pacific Street, according to E & A Consulting, which provided engineering services for the project. The new church building is scheduled for completion in March of 2024.

After two fires in a little more than one year, the Flora Apartments at 2557 Jones Street will be torn down, according to the Omaha World-Herald. The most recent fire was May 22nd. The first fire was May 12th of last year.

Grow Omaha Snippets are brought to you by Omaha Car Care with four metro area locations – 131st & Dodge, 58th & Center, 85th & L and 144th & Harrison.

Omaha Car Care “We’ll be along for the ride.”

The Creighton University Mid-America Business Conditions Index, a leading economic indicator for the nine-state region stretching from Minnesota to Arkansas declined to 51.3 from 54.8 in April. A reading of 50.0 represents growth neutral.

Omaha-based Sapp Bros. Travel Centers has been named one of the best gas station brands by USA Today’s 10Best.

Starting today, international shippers are able to deliver consumer goods quicker and more efficiently to consumers, as Omaha-based Union Pacific Railroad expands its services at Port Houston to allow intermodal containers to be loaded directly onto railcars and transported by rail to five key metropolitan markets – Denver, Salt Lake City, Oakland, Los Angeles, and El Paso

Ramona & Ruth plans to open in a couple months inside a 2,000 sq. ft. bay at 12107 Emmet Street, according to Oak Investment Real Estate. Ramona & Ruth is a boutique letterpress stationery studio that uses an antique press to create stationery that can be found in hundreds of shops around the world.

The Omaha area experienced a 2.3 percent increase in construction employment from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year, according to Turner Construction’s Q1 2023 market conditions report.

The U.S. Supreme Court has limited federal authority over wetlands, reports Omaha law firm Baird Holm, LLP. In Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency, the Court held that wetlands may only qualify as “waters of the United States” if they have a continuous surface connection to a traditionally navigable water body.

Business Trivia – In 1995, the healthcare industry was only the 13th largest on the Fortune 500 list. Today, eight of the top 25 companies are health care companies, making it the second largest industry behind finance. Combined, the healthcare companies on the Fortune 500 generate $2.77 trillion in annual revenue.

This section is sponsored by FranNet of The Heartland, the local, trusted franchise experts. They are “in the business of helping you get into business!”

Today’s Real Estate Market: The ‘Unicorns’ Have Galloped Off

By Joe Finlay

Comparing real estate metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market. That’s due to possible variability in the market, making the comparison less meaningful or accurate. Unpredictable events have a significant impact on the circumstances and outcomes being compared.

Comparing this year’s numbers to the two “unicorn” years we just experienced is almost worthless. A “unicorn” is “something that is greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.”

The pandemic profoundly changed real estate over the past three years. The demand for a home of your own skyrocketed; people suddenly needed a home office and big backyard:

• Waves of first-time and second-home buyers entered the market.
• Already low mortgage rates were driven to historic lows.
• The forbearance plan all but eliminated foreclosures.
• Home values reached appreciation levels never seen before.

It was a market that forever had been “greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” A unicorn year.

Now, things are getting back to normal. The unicorns have galloped off. Comparing today’s market to those years makes no sense. Here are three examples:

1. Buyer Demand

Data from the Great Plains MLS shows that we still sell more than 22 houses per day in Douglas and Sarpy counties. Of course, buyer demand is down from the two unicorn years due to higher interest rates. But, if we compare it to normal years (2017-2019), showing traffic is still above those pre-unicorn years.

2. Home Prices

We can’t compare today’s home price increases to the last couple of years. According to Freddie Mac, 2020 and 2021 each had historic appreciation numbers.

In Omaha we’re returning to more normal home value increases. There were several months of flat appreciation in the second half of 2022. Prices in Q1 of 2023 are up about 1 percent compared to the previous quarter. According to Fannie Mae, the market has returned to more normal appreciation in the first quarter of this year.

3. Foreclosures

There have already been some startling headlines about the percentage increases in foreclosure filings. Of course, the percentages will be up; they are increases over historically low foreclosure rates.

There will be an increase from the last three years now that the moratorium on foreclosures has ended. There are homeowners who lose their home to foreclosure every year, and it’s heartbreaking for those families. But, if we put the current numbers into perspective, we’ll realize that we’re actually going back to the normal filings from 2017-2019.

Bottom Line

There will be very unsettling headlines written about the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the unicorn years. Let’s connect to help keep everything in perspective.

Grow Omaha Residential is developed and sponsored by Joe Finlay, REALTOR with NP Dodge Real Estate.

LEADERSHIP & MANAGEMENT

The Best Are Worth the Cost. According to Gallup, companies that select the top 20 percent most talented candidates for a role, frequently realize a 20 percent increase in sales, a 30 percent increase in profitability, and a 10 percent decrease in turnover.

The rising cost of living is prompting many employees to push for a hefty pay increase. Businesses are still handing out substantial raises, but less than what they projected last fall, according to the Wall Street Journal. Employers are giving average annual merit raises of 3.8 percent and total compensation increases of 4.1 percent in 2023— the highest-reported raises since the 2008 financial crisis.

Approximately 40 percent of workers who are familiar with ChatGPT are concerned the chatbot will replace their jobs completely, according to a March 2023 Harris poll.

Tech executives and artificial-intelligence scientists said in a joint statement this week that the technology poses an extinction risk as great as pandemics and nuclear war, the Wall Street Journal reports. More than 350 people signed a statement released by the Center for AI Safety, including none other than the CEO of OpenAI, the company that developed ChatGPT.

Travel Update – The TSA screened 9.8 million airport visitors over the Memorial Day weekend. That’s 300,000 more than the same weekend in 2019. Friday’s passenger volume was particularly heavy – the highest post-pandemic day on record.

SALES

When it comes to prospecting, tomorrow begins today, says sales author Mark Hunter. Never end the day without knowing exactly who you’re going to call tomorrow and what your expected outcomes are.

The average salesperson has a win rate of merely 17 percent, according to sales author Anthony Iannarino. In other words, 83 percent of deals initiated by a salesperson fall through.

Don’t Assume. Just because you are an expert in what you do for a living and the product or service your company provides, doesn’t necessarily mean you know what is best for your client. Only your client determines what is valuable. Do what it takes to find out exactly want the prospect values without any ambiguity.

“Sales isn’t something you do to someone,” said the late great Zig Ziglar. “It’s something you do for someone.” Buyers are less satisfied with decisions that are made under pressure.

WISDOM

“If you’re not sure where you’re going, you’re liable to end up someplace else.” – Robert F. Mager

Taste of Omaha 2023 from June 2nd to 4th: Taste of Omaha is back and tastier than ever! Come out to the Granary Green to indulge in the tantalizing flavors and exquisite dishes crafted by Omaha’s top-notch restaurants as they showcase their finest creations. This event is a fusion of delectable feature foods, local entertainment and a wide array of family fun activities. The 2023 edition of the Taste of Omaha is set to be even more delicious! Join others and get ready to savor, relax and enjoy the culinary delights of this year’s Taste of Omaha!

Benson Beer Fest 2023 on June 3rd: Get ready for the ultimate beer lover’s dream! Every year, on the first Saturday of June, the Benson neighborhood transforms into a beer lover’s paradise. This year, mark your calendars for June 3rd and get ready to indulge in the most amazing craft beers from more than 100 different breweries, serving up more than 500 different varieties. The best part? For the price of one ticket, you can enjoy unlimited pours of all your favorite brews, making this festival an unbeatable deal. But the beer isn’t the only thing that’s great about this festival. With food vendors on hand, you can enjoy delicious bites to complement your beer choices. Come out for a night of delicious food and drinks in Benson!

Soaring Wings 19th Annual Wine Beer Blues and Balloons Festival on June 3rd: Join others in celebrating the 19th annual Spring Wine, Beer, Blues and Balloon Festival at Soaring Wings! Over the years the Spring Wine, Beer, Blues, and Balloon Festival has worked its way into the hearts of local Omahans and visitors alike. Bring your family and friends to immerse yourself in the music and culture of Blues while toasting off Hot Air Balloons with delightful brews and wine both made on site!

June Modus Coworking Free Coworking Day on June 8th: Increase your productivity and take advantage of a free coworking day every second Thursday of the month from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. With high-speed wifi and top-notch office amenities at your fingertips, you’ll be able to work in peace and focus on your goals. And don’t forget to stick around for a complimentary happy hour starting at 4 p.m. – enjoy free wine, snacks, and connect with like-minded individuals!

Night Light on June 8th: Unwind and rekindle your curiosity during Night Lights at Kiewit Luminarium! Happening every Thursday evening from 7-10 p.m. you can grab a drink, mingle, and play with more than 100 interactive exhibits during an adults-only evening of discovery and fun on the riverfront. Make sure to check out the hands-on activities in the Maker Space and learn with Luminators. You can purchase your ticket at the door but reservations are highly encouraged!

This Upcoming Events section is sponsored by Eagle Mortgage Company, is a locally owned and full-service mortgage company in Omaha.

Eagle Mortgage can help you realize your dream of owning a home.

Lutz, an Omaha-based business solutions firm, recently added Cayla Kurtenbach, Luke Schlueter, Brad Tuch, and Braydon Walsh to its Tech division in the Omaha office.

Cobalt Credit Union has promoted Erik Wiese to financial advisor in the wealth management department. He has more than five years financial experience and is on the credit union’s management team.

In Memoriam – Omaha actor John Beasley died at age 79 Tuesday after a brief and unexpected illness, according to the Los Angeles Times. Beasley, who didn’t start acting until his mid-40s, had nearly 70 acting credits to his name. In 2002, he founded the John Beasley Theatre & Workshop in Omaha. He is survived by Judy, his wife of 58 years; two sons; and six grandchildren, including Malik Beasley, who plays for the Los Angeles Lakers.

The “People in the News” section is sponsored by Baird Holm LLP. Baird Holm’s dedicated team of real estate lawyers has extensive experience in all aspects of real estate law, including purchases, sales, zoning and land use, leasing, and dispute resolution. Click HERE for more information.

OK boys and girls, time for a vocabulary test. The word for the week is “decouple.” What does it mean? Some things used to be connected but not anymore.

When things decouple, they can move in the same direction, but at different speeds. Normally the big three market indexes – the Dow, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ – move together because they have many stocks in common.

Throughout most of 2022, all three indexes moved in a loosely coupled fashioned. But in January 2023, they began a gradual decoupling. As the year unfolded, the Dow moved lethargically slowly, while the S&P gathered a bit of steam (more like a jog than a full-out sprint). The Nasdaq started the year leading the pack, and then when the mythical “bank crisis” hit the fan, it moved into warp speed. Year to date, the Dow is up only 1.2 percent. The S&P is at 9.3 percent, and the NASDAQ has advanced an eye-popping 24.3 percent.

To understand what is happening, we need to look at how the indexes are constructed. The Dow is the stogey bunch of 30 plain-Jane stocks. It is weighted by stock price, which means that a poo-poo stock with a high price can jerk the index around. When Apple was added to the Dow, they split the stock, which cut its stock price in half and reduced its weighting. Mr. Market doesn’t like Wall Street stock jocks messing with him!!

The S&P has been operating around its historic norm. But during the “bank crisis,” it got jerked around by a bunch of 20-somethings, living in their parents’ basements, day trading on Robin Hood (an upstart discount brokerage firm). Then the Wall Street traders joined the fray and made the S&P look like the Coney Island roller coaster.

For a variety of reasons, the NASDAQ has been the star of the show. First, it contains a bunch of the high-flying tech stocks that caught fire – companies like Novita and Apple. Because the Nasdaq is cap weighted – both these companies are in the trillion-dollar market cap range – the Nasdaq took off like Johnny Rodgers on an end-around run. The other point of note is that the most traded index fund related to the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ 100, excludes all of the financial companies that were taking the S&P on a roller coaster ride.

The takeaway for individual investors is to forget the needle and buy the haystack. But you must be picky about the haystack(s)! The conventional wisdom is that index-fund investing is totally passive. Set it and forget it.

NOT! The market is not monolithic, not static. New players and new products are constantly emerging. Every market day, passive index funds are among the most actively traded. To paraphrase P.T. Barnum, “That’s enough to make a decent living.”

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The Grow Omaha radio show broadcasts live every Saturday morning at 9:00, but now you can watch videos of each episode instead of just listening.

Grow Omaha’s brand-new website features video footage shot inside the radio studio during each week’s show!

Videos include News of the Week, Lightning Round, guest interviews, and “Grow Omaha Uncut,” a behind-the-scenes look at what happens during commercial breaks.

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